Another active hurricane season expected

Hurricane experts anticipate another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2005, following last year’s historic and destructive storms. Forecasters at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predicted as many as five major hurricanes this year in their annual outlook, released in mid-May.

The NOAA outlook forecasts 12 to 15 tropical storms this year, with seven to nine of those becoming hurricanes. Of that group, forecasters expect three to five to become major hurricanes, which means a Category 3 storm with winds exceeding 111 m.p.h. The forecast does not predict, however, how many of those storms might make landfall.

On average, two major hurricanes hit the United States every three years. Last year, there were 15 tropical storms. Nine of them became hurricanes — six of them major. An unprecedented four hurricanes hit Florida — Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. (See this year’s storm names)

Historically, “above-normal” seasons average two or three landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States, according to NOAA.

“You will hear seasonal forecasts of Atlantic storms and hurricanes, but remember the ones that strike land are important, not the total number that form in the Atlantic Basin,” said Dr. Steve Lyons, tropical weather expert at The Weather Channel. “[But] it only takes one in your area to change your community.”

The head of the National Weather Service emphasized that it’s crucial to be prepared if you live in a hurricane-prone area, even if you are some distance from the coast. “As we … look at another highly active season, preparation plans should consider that these storms carry severe weather, such as tornadoes and flooding, while moving inland.” (Get tips on preparing your home)

Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends November 30. The season typically peaks from late August through October.

Forecasters say their outlook considered the trend, since 1995, for above-average tropical activity in the Atlantic. (In the past 10 years, all but two seasons have been above-average.) In addition, forecasters say the continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures influenced their outlook. NOAA will update its Atlantic hurricane forecast in August, just before the season’s typical peak.

Hmm.. Not sure what’ll happen, come evacuation time. I wonder if I can pre-book a hotel.